{"id":6839,"date":"2021-11-06T19:54:03","date_gmt":"2021-11-06T23:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yibababa.com\/?p=6839"},"modified":"2021-11-06T19:54:03","modified_gmt":"2021-11-06T23:54:03","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e4%bf%a1%e5%ba%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/archives\/6839","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\uff08Gallup\uff09\u3001\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u3001\u6606\u5c3c\u76ae\u4e9a\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u6295\u7968\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Quinnipiac University Polling Institute)\u3001\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6c11\u8c03\uff08Harris Poll\uff09\u548c\u9521\u8036\u7eb3\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Siena Research Institute) \u7b49\u6570\u5341\u5bb6\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u505a\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u8425\u9500\u3001\u8425\u517b\u536b\u751f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u3001\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u7b49\uff0c\u51e1\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u80fd\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u5982\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u5c40\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u4e5f\u505a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u6216\u5de5\u4f5c\u5f53\u4e2d\u5229\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60f3\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5982\u679c\u6709\u591a\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u8fdc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u7a76\u7adf\u5e94\u8be5\u76f8\u4fe1\u8c01\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6765\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5b83\u9664\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u4f53\u80b2\u505a\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u9879\u4f7f\u547d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\u5bf9\u5404\u5bb6\u6c11\u8c03\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u67e5<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u51fa\u9ad8\u4f4e\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u770b\u5f85\u8d44\u8baf\u6765\u6e90\u65f6\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6709\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u6709\u70b9\u7279\u522b\uff0c\u53eb\u505a<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; color: #0000ff;\">FiveThirtyEight<\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a538\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e25\u683c\u8bf4\u6765\uff0c538\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u535a\u5ba2\u7f51\u7ad9\uff0c\u5176\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u540d70\u540e\uff0c\u540d\u53eb\u7eb3\u7279\u00b7\u5e0c\u5c14\u5f17\uff08Nate Silver\uff09\u3002\u5e0c\u5c14\u5f17\u751f\u4e8e1978\u5e74\uff0c\u5176\u7236\u7cfb\u548c\u6bcd\u7cfb\u90fd\u6709\u51fa\u7c7b\u62d4\u8403\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u5219\u4ece\u5c0f\u5c31\u559c\u6b22\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u68d2\u7403\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u4ece\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6bd5\u4e1a\uff0c\u5927\u4e09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6362\u751f\u66fe\u5c31\u8bfb\u4e8e\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u3002\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u5e0c\u5c14\u5f17\u5165\u804c\u6bd5\u9a6c\u5a01\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u8f6c\u79fb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u987e\u95ee\u8fd14\u5e74\uff0c\u81ea\u8ba4\u662f\u5176\u4e00\u751f\u4e2d\u6700\u4e4f\u5473\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u4ed6\u7ee7\u7eed\u6c89\u8ff7\u4e8e\u68d2\u7403\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4eab\u6709\u76db\u8a89\u7684\u68d2\u7403\u7403\u5458\u8868\u73b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7cfb\u7edfPECOTA\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u8f6c\u8ba9\u7ed9\u4f53\u80b2\u5206\u6790\u8bc4\u8bba\u516c\u53f8BP\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e0c\u5c14\u5f17\u8fd8\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u547d\u540d\u4e3aFiveThirtyEight\uff0c\u8d77\u610f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u56e2\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u4ed6\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e862008\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u900950\u4e2a\u5dde\u4e2d\u768449\u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c 2009\u5e74\u88ab\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c100\u4f4d\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u56db\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u5168\u90e850\u4e2a\u5dde\u548c\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7279\u533a\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u8005\u30022016\u5e74\u867d\u7136FiveThirtyEight\u4e0e\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u6c11\u8c03\u4e00\u6837\u72af\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u7ed9\u7279\u6717\u666e28%\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u51e0\u7387\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5176\u4ed6\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u5b83\u53c8\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e8650\u4e2a\u5dde\u4e2d\u768448\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e0c\u5c14\u5f17\u7684538\u7cfb\u7edf<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">\u8fd8\u5bf9\u5c06\u8fd1500\u5bb6\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u8c03\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u8c03\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u4e0e\u6700\u7ec8\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u5f20\u52a8\u6001\u56fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece\u5de6\u5230\u53f3\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u9012\u51cf\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u666e\u901a\u6c11\u4f17\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u56fe\u4e0a\u68c0\u7d22\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u505a\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u6bcf\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u827e\u5965\u74e6\u5dde\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u505a\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u585e\u5c14\u6cfd\u516c\u53f8\uff08Selzer &amp; Company\uff09\uff0c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5973\u58eb\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u4ee5\u5176\u540d\u5b57\u547d\u540d\u3002538\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u6240\u505a\u768451\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\uff0837\u6b21\uff09\u8bef\u5dee\u90fd\u5c0f\u4e8e5%\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u8be5\u5dde\u9009\u6c11\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u8be5\u5dde\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u5e2d\u4f4d\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8bef\u5dee\u5206\u522b\u5c0f\u4e8e1.2%\u548c2.6%\u3002\u522b\u770b\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u5728538\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u516c\u53f8\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u56fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u4ee5\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6210\u7ee9A+\u9738\u5360\u6700\u5de6\u8fb9\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u8c03\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u4e5f\u8fbe\u5230A+\u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4f9d\u6b21\u8fd8\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\u65b0\u95fb\/\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\uff08ABC News\/The Washington Post\uff09\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5546\u4e1a\u65e5\u62a5\uff08IBD\/TIPP\uff09\u548c\u9521\u8036\u7eb3\u5b66\u9662\/\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\uff08Siena College\/The New York Times Upshot\uff09\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u8033\u719f\u80fd\u8be6\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u5927\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\u548c\u76ae\u5c24\uff0c\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e0a\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5219\u5dee\u5f3a\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4e0d\u8fc7B+\uff08\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\uff09\u548cB\/C\uff08\u76ae\u5c24\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u660e\u5e74\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%9F%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; color: #0000ff;\">\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e<\/span><\/a>\uff0c\u52302024\u5e74\u53c8\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5404\u5bb6\u6c11\u8c03\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/share.america.gov\/zh-hans\/pollster-scorecards-for-the-major-polling-firms-in-the-u-s\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">share.america.gov<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\uff08Gallup\uff09\u3001\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Cen &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/archives\/6839\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6839\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yibababa.com\/article\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}